The continuation of the tax reform regulations, changes to income tax and the judgment on the exclusion of ISS from the PIS and Cofins calculation basis are the issues most awaited by tax law specialists in 2025.
These were the main themes cited by tax experts consulted by the electronic magazine Consultor Jurídico regardingexpectations for this year.
"Tax reform, which aims to simplify the Brazilian tax system and reduce the tax burden, will continue to be discussed, with the expectation of tax unification and greater legal certainty for companies," says Morvan Meirelles Costa Junior, a lawyer at Meirelles Costa Advogados.
"It is in this project that we will discuss issues linked to the regulation of the litigation structure of the IBS and CBS, which must be handled with great care so that the objectives of Constitutional Amendment 132/2023 are preserved, especially the principles of simplicity, transparency and cooperation," points out Flávio Molinari, partner at Collavini Borges Molinari Advogados.
Flávio Prado, a tax partner at Gaia Silva Gaede Advogados, points out that "other issues of interest to taxpayers have yet to be defined, such as the use of accumulated credit balances from current taxes, after the tax reform transition period has passed".
The federal government has also announced that it will propose, in 2025, a tax reform on income (and not on consumption, like the one that created VAT), with the aim of widening the income tax exemption bracket for those earning up to R$5,000.
In the opinion of Eduardo Froehlich Zangerolami, a partner at Barcellos Tucunduva Advogados, with the approval of the consumption tax reform, "the government will gain strength to move forward" with the changes to income tax in 2025.
For Eduardo Natal, a partner at Natal & Manssur Advogados, this reform on income "may not be welcome, considering the increase in the tax burden in 2024 and the major discussions on the tax framework".
Judgments
At the Federal Supreme Court, the most eagerly awaited tax judgment in 2025 is the one that will decide whether ISS can be excluded from the PIS and Cofins calculation basis (RE 592.616) - a "child thesis" of the so-called "thesis of the century", from 2017, which defined the exclusion of ICMS from the calculation basis of these contributions.
The analysis of the ISS began in 2020 and was suspended for the last time in August of last year, with a score of 5 to 5. Justice Luiz Fux's vote will break the tie.
According to Felipe Rei, a partner at Böing Vieites Gleich Mizrahi Rei Advogados, "the decision will have important repercussions on the tax planning of companies that provide services and may include debates on the modulation of the effects of the decision".
Due to the precedent of the "thesis of the century", Prado sees a natural "strong expectation" that the STF will adopt a similar position with regard to the ISS.
Natal also expresses his expectation regarding the judgment of another "child thesis": the exclusion of PIS and Cofins from their own calculation bases (RE 1.233.096), which has been awaiting judgment since 2019.
Tax litigation
In addition, some tax issues are expected to generate a lot of administrative and judicial litigation. One of the most cited is the minimum tax rate of 15% for multinational companies established in Brazil with revenues of more than 720 million euros per year, provided for in a law that has already been passed.
"The measure combats the transfer of profits from multinationals to low-tax countries," says Rei.